New NPR Poll on US-China Tariffs and Economy Explained

HOST

From DailyListen, I'm Alex. A new NPR, Chicago Council on Global Affairs, and Ipsos poll just dropped, showing most Americans think the US-China trade war has hurt both economies. They see China as a huge economic rival, but want tariffs cut to ease costs at home. President Trump heads to Beijing soon for talks with Xi Jinping, amid tariffs now 596% higher than early this year. Public mood leans toward less confrontation. To unpack how Americans view China now—and what that means for power between Washington and Beijing—we're joined by James, our politics analyst.

JAMES

Pressure falls hardest on US consumers and exporters right now. That NPR/Chicago Council/Ipsos poll finds most Americans believe tariffs have damaged both the US and Chinese economies. Specifically, seven in 10 say they'd back cutting tariffs if China buys more US farm goods—like soybeans and pork that got hit hard in 2018 retaliations. Farmers in Iowa and Illinois lost billions then; exports to China dropped 75% that year from $20 billion to under $10 billion. Beijing targeted those politically key states. But Americans still name China as a top rival—mostly economic, not military, by 56% to 29%. This forces Trump to balance hawks in Congress, who push 60% tariffs from his 2024 campaign, against voters tired of $500 extra per household in costs, per some estimates. Trade deficit shrank a bit, from $419 billion in 2018 to $367 billion last year, but manufacturing jobs didn't surge back.

HOST

Seven in 10 willing to trade tariff cuts for more ag sales—that's a big number. Puts farmers front and center. But the poll says most see China as a top adversary. How does that split play out across parties?

JAMES

Republicans feel the squeeze from economic rivalry more acutely. Poll shows 70% of them call China an adversary, versus 55% of Democrats—still high, but the gap matters. GOP base in Rust Belt states remembers factory closures tied to cheap Chinese imports; steel towns like Gary, Indiana, pushed Trump in 2016. Democrats worry about tech theft—China forces US firms like Apple to hand over know-how for market access. Overall, 56%-29% pick economic threat over military. That tilts pressure toward deal-making on trade, not escalation. Trump's first term tariffs hit $540 billion in Chinese goods at 19.3% average by end-2020; Biden nudged to 21.2%, just two small hikes. Now at 145% on some items after recent jumps—China hit back with 125% on US goods. Consumers pay: a washing machine costs $100 more. Yet no one's cheering; even 36% think tariffs boosted China's world standing over US security at 32%.

HOST

Republicans way more likely to see China as adversary. But everyone agrees it's economic pain first. Does that explain why tariffs are so unpopular despite the rivalry?

JAMES

Exactly. Americans want strong trade ties kept—poll says majority favor it, mainly to drop consumer prices. Back in 2018, US imported $540 billion from China, exported just $120 billion. Beijing couldn't match dollar-for-dollar, so picked farm hits to hurt Trump politically. Now, with tariffs up 596% from January, a Brookings piece calls it more pain than gain for America. Trade deficit fell some, but jobs? Steel added 1,000 positions max, while tariffs cost 175,000 manufacturing jobs elsewhere, per studies. Everyday folks see grocery bills up 2-3%, not victory. Forces Xi and Trump to negotiate—Trump's weekend deal announcement hints at that, prepping his Beijing trip.

HOST

That 2018 import-export gap locked in China's weak spot. No wonder they aimed at farms. But Brookings says trade war hurt us more. What's the public take on that?

JAMES

Voters land on "bad for both sides." Majority in the poll say tariffs hurt US economy, same for China's. A majority even calls it bad for Beijing too. This view strengthens hands of free-trade voices in DC, like some Senate Democrats and business lobbies. US Chamber of Commerce has lobbied hard against hikes, citing $25 billion in annual farmer aid needed post-2018. Political divides sharpen it: Trump voters back confrontation more, but independents—key swing group—want de-escalation by 60%. No one sees military clash as top risk; economic dominance worries them, like TSMC building US plants to dodge risks, supplying Apple chips. Yet poll shows desire for less fight—seven in 10 for tariff swaps on ag. Trump's China trip tests if he pivots from 60% threat to deals, with Congress watching farm states closely.

HOST

Independents leaning de-escalation makes sense—they're the ones checking prices. Poll pegs economic threat way above military. Does history back why Americans frame China this way?

JAMES

Deng Xiaoping's 1979 opening set the stage—US normalized ties then, China joined GATT in 1986, aiming for trade boom. But by 2018, Trump hit tariffs over IP theft and forced tech transfers, widening deficit to national security fears—like losing chipmaking capacity. Public buys that economic angle: 56%-29% margin. Forces US firms to reshore; TSMC's Arizona plant, $12 billion investment, makes advanced chips for defense gear. China gains from perceived US weakness—36% in poll say tariffs helped their global spot. Biden kept most tariffs but added few; now Trump's return spiked them huge. Americans see rival seeking dominance, per poll, but want trade without the war's costs—237,000 border crossings last year unrelated, but economic pain feels direct.

HOST

TSMC moving chips here dodges some risks. Smart. But that 36% saying tariffs boosted China—ouch for US security views. How do political splits factor into Trump's Beijing play?

JAMES

GOP holds firmer on rivalry—65% see China as adversary versus Democrats at 50%, poll details. That gives Trump room to push Xi hard, but independents at 58% adversary view demand results, not just talk. Forces Beijing to offer concessions, like more Boeing buys or ag purchases, echoing Phase One deal from 2020 that flopped on enforcement. Trade war since 2018 cost 0.2% global trade dip; US GDP hit 0.3% per Fed estimates. Senate Republicans like Cotton back tariffs, but farm-state senators like Grassley push deals. Public wants maintained trade links—majority per poll—to cut consumer costs, now up $1,900 yearly per household from tariffs. Trump's trip, first of second term, puts leverage on Xi to buy time amid his own slowdown.

HOST

Farm-state pressure on guys like Grassley could force deals. Poll wants tariffs down for lower prices. But most still see China as top rival. What's the split on whether tariffs even worked?

JAMES

Americans doubt gains. Most say negative hit to both economies—poll shows majority views war bad for China too. Trade deficit dropped from $540 billion imports asymmetry, but no job boom; media called Trump's first round a failure by 2020. Forces exporters like Caterpillar to eat costs—sales to China halved post-tariffs. Now with 145% US rates versus China's 125%, pressure mounts on Trump to claim win via weekend deal buzz. Voters prioritize ag swaps: seven in 10 support. Political rifts show—Republicans 10 points more likely to back tariffs sticking. Yet overall, economic threat framing—56%-29%—means DC can't ignore consumer backlash. Brookings notes more pain for US; public echoes that, eyeing Xi meet for relief without dropping guard.

HOST

Media called it failure, deficit shrank but no jobs. Voters say bad for both. So why's China still top rival in minds?

JAMES

Economic ambitions stick—poll has most naming China biggest rival, seeking dominance via trade edges like IP grabs. Since Deng's era, they've surged; US views practices as unfair, fueling deficit and security gaps. But seven in 10 back tariff cuts for farm buys—shows pragmatism. Trump's hikes to 596% over year force reaction; China's limited by export reliance. Puts ball in Xi's court for Beijing talks.

HOST

Pragmatism on ag deals amid rivalry. Fits the economic threat focus. With Trump prepping China trip, how's public opinion shaping his room to maneuver?

JAMES

It boxes him between bases. Poll desire for less confrontation—majority want strong trade, tariffs reduced—pressures for Xi wins like Phase One redux, but enforced. Hawks in House GOP lose if no ag boost; farmers got $28 billion bailouts last time. Democrats split less hawkish, giving Trump bipartisan pushback if prices spike more. 36% crediting tariffs for China's gain weakens security hawks. Overall, Americans wary but deal-hungry—56% economic fear drives that. Recent 145% tariffs forecast more pain; global trade dips 0.2%. Beijing's retaliation cap from 2018 imbalance—$120 billion exports—still holds, targeting politics.

HOST

Bipartisan pushback if no deals. Makes sense with those bailout numbers. One last bit: poll notes some divides. Any sign Americans want full pullback from confrontation?

JAMES

Not full retreat—most hold China as adversary, economic core. But yes, lean to de-escalate: majority say tariffs hurt US, want cuts for consumer relief and ag sales. Seven in 10 on that swap. Republicans toughest—70% rival tag—but even they split on pain. Independents tilt deal-side strongest. Trump's Beijing trip tests it; weekend agreement tease shows response. History from 1979 normalization to 2018 war shapes wary trade view—no dominance ceded, but costs real. Biden's minimal hikes kept status quo; now spikes force all to react—consumers loudest.

HOST

Poll paints Americans dead set on China as economic foe, but done with tariff pain—favoring deals over endless war. Trump's Beijing trip could shift that. James, spot on as always. I'm Alex. Thanks for listening to DailyListen.